The Algorithmic Construction of Futures
Prediction, Contingency, and Social Possibility (Part II)
2026-01-25 32 min
Description & Show Notes
The future is not something algorithms predict—it's something they produce. In this concluding exploration of Elena Esposito's work, we examine how algorithmic prediction transforms the very nature of futurity, turning forecasts into self-fulfilling prophecies and creating new forms of social contingency. Drawing on her analysis of financial algorithms, recommendation systems, and predictive analytics, we discover that AI doesn't simply calculate what will happen; it opens and closes possibilities, shapes probabilities, constructs the space of what can happen. This has profound implications: if algorithms are architects of possibility, then they're not just observing social reality—they're building it. We explore how this transforms knowledge, memory, agency, and the fundamental openness of the future. As machine learning systems increasingly mediate our access to information, shape our decisions, and structure our social interactions, the question becomes: What kind of futures are algorithms creating? And crucially: Can we create algorithms that preserve human creativity, surprise, and genuine contingency?
What makes a system viable? How do organizations—from small companies to entire economies—maintain stability while adapting to complexity? Stafford Beer, the founder of management cybernetics, dedicated his life to answering these questions. His crowning achievement, the Viable System Model (VSM), shows how any sustainable system must organize itself through five essential subsystems operating recursively at multiple levels. But Beer wasn't just a theorist; he put his ideas into practice. In 1971, Chile's socialist government invited him to design Cybersyn, a real-time economic management system that would use cybernetic principles to coordinate the nation's economy. For two years, it worked, until Pinochet's coup destroyed both the project and Chile's democracy. In this episode, we explore Beer's VSM in detail, examine what Cybersyn achieved and why it failed, and discover how his principles apply to modern AI systems, organizational governance, and the question of machine autonomy. If consciousness requires viable organization, if intelligence demands recursive structure, then Beer's work isn't just management theory; it's essential for understanding how complex minds maintain themselves.
Primary Texts by Elena Esposito:
- The Future of Futures: The Time of Money in Financing and Society (2011) - Core text on algorithmic prediction and temporal construction.
- Artificial Communication: How Algorithms Produce Social Intelligence (2022) - Complete treatment of algorithms as social actors.
- Die Fiktion der wahrscheinlichen Realität / The Fiction of Probable Reality (2007) - On mass media and reality construction (German).
- "Social Forgetting: A Systems-Theory Approach" (2008) - On memory, forgetting, and digital permanence.
- "Algorithmic Memory and the Right to Be Forgotten on the Web" (2017) - Legal and functional arguments for digital forgetting.
- "Economic Circularities and Second-Order Observation" (2013) - On self-referential financial markets.
- "Artificial Communication? The Production of Contingency by Algorithms" (2017) - On how algorithms generate possibilities.
Exercise
For one week, keep an "algorithmic diary." Note every time an algorithm makes a decision that affects you: recommendations, search results, navigation routes, content feeds, autocorrections. Ask: Did this expand my world or narrow it? Did it predict my preference or create it? Did it show me something unexpected or just more of the same? At week's end, reflect: Are you using algorithms, or are they using you?